Super Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday, Historic Tuesday, whatever you want to call it, Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008, is here. Twenty-four states voting, 3,156 delegates at stake--the biggest presidential primary day ever. Many states are testing new voter ID laws or computerized voting systems, absentee ballots are expected to be at an all time high, since new laws in fifteen states allow for them to be cast without the voter having to provide a reason (such as illness or military service). All of this could complicate the vote tabulation, so it may be a long night before our results are clear.
On the Republican side, most observers are betting on John McCain to be bested by Mitt Romney. The Democratic side is a little bit more difficult to call. Hillary has lost her once-commanding lead, but is still powerful and many politicos think she and Obama will end up roughly even and continue to slug it out in the months to come. I think that, if there is going to be a surprise, it will be that Obama has surged far more than the polls are showing. No reason for thinking this except for gut instinct and more small anecdote: a friend of mine ordered a lawn sign from the Obama campaign ten days ago, and as of Saturday it had still not arrived -- demand was too high. Finally, he went to a local Obama HQ here in New Jersey and managed to snag one, but it was difficult. Quite often insignificant things like lawn signs can be bellweathers in tight elections.
We'll see. In the meantime, anybody with a free moment this AM, please tune into MSNBC at 10:30, where you'll find me talking with Joe Scarborough about dirty tricks present and past on a special extended Election Day "Morning Joe" show.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
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